Tropical wave eyes Caribbean as Ernesto heads toward Ireland; Lane could become next major hurricane

By Florida Today

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(FLORIDA TODAY) – The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

This year, experts from Colorado State University predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively. MAUREEN KENYON/TCPALM

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two systems in the Atlantic.

While Subtropical Storm Ernesto is heading toward Ireland, a tropical wave farther south has some potential for development.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto didn’t change much overnight and is expected to become post-tropical in a day or so.

• Location: 605 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland

• Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph

• Movement: north-northeast at 13 mph

At 5 a.m., the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located 605 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph.

A significantly faster northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.

Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days.

Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday.

Tropical wave

Much farther south, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are associated with a tropical wave.

Gradual development of this system is possible over the next two to three days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands.

After that time, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development when the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 10 percent.

• Formation chance through 5 days: 20 percent.

Pacific

Tropical Storm Lane is expected to strengthen quickly over the next few days and become a major hurricane by Saturday.

• Location: 1,390 miles southwest of Baja California

• Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

• Movement: west at 12 mph

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located 1,390 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Lane is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Steady strengthening is expected, and Lane is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and a major hurricane by Saturday.

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