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(WEATHER CHANNEL) – Tropical Storm Harvey has formed a couple hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, and may pose a threat early next week in parts of Central America’s Caribbean coast.
Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of the Windward Islands, including Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Warnings are issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch was posted for Dominica, where those conditions are possible within that timeframe.
A watch means hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.
The NHC said in a Thursday morning discussion that data from NOAA buoys indicate the low-pressure circulation has become better defined.
A hurricane hunter aircraft determined that the tropical storm, previously known at Invest 91L, has a closed circulation and winds of 40 mph.
Harvey will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, which could trigger dangerous flash flooding and landslides in mountainous terrain.
After that, the system will then track westward through the rest of the Caribbean Sea, and may eventually pose a threat to parts of Central America and/or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week.
It’s not clear how strong this tropical storm will become through its Caribbean trek, due to potential interaction with dry air. Interests throughout the Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system through early next week.
Two Other Disturbances to Monitor
A few hundred miles to the east, a second disturbance, designated Invest 92L by the NHC, is festering.
Despite showing some decent spin, this second disturbance appears to be in a more formidable battle against dry air.
A fresh surge of such dry air, known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), is pushing toward 92L right now, adding to the dry air it seems to be fighting with to its north and west. This dry air may mix in with the disturbance, preventing thunderstorms from persisting and clustering.