All leading forecast agencies have predicted below normal tropical cyclone activity in our region over this year’s season. The abnormally low activity is primarily due to the development of an El Nino event over the tropical Pacific Ocean which is expected to last throughout this hurricane season.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a 70 per cent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms, of which 3 to 6 will become hurricanes with a possibility of up to 2 developing into major hurricanes.
• Dr. William Gray’s team at the Colorado State University predict the formation of 7 named storms of which 3 will become hurricanes with only one (1) developing into a major hurricane.
The abnormally low activity does not mean that we should be lax in our preparation and vigilance for cyclones this year since very destructive cyclones are known to strike during years of low cyclone activity.
The Saint Lucia Met Services urges all Saint Lucian residents to make adequate plans and preparations for the hurricane season. Please pay particular attention to local weather reports, advisories and bulletins, especially those issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services.
The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will also be issuing necessary advice and information which you should follow closely.
The hurricane season ends on 30 November 2015.