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As the Atlantic Hurricane Season enters its busiest period, September to November, a well-defined low pressure system is located about 100 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles and satellite imagery indicates that the associated thunderstorm activity has increased with signs of organization.
According to the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, upper-level winds are quite conducive but proximity to dry air in the middle- and upper-levels of the atmosphere could inhibit development of this disturbance.
This system has a medium chance (40 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles today, including Saint Lucia.